As the world’s economy recovers from the recent slowdown, Britain’s economy is bouncing back as well, amid the negative sentiments from Brexit vote last year.
After analyzing Britain’s business orders, industry confidence and market moves, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) thinks that there are “tentative signs of growth gaining momentum” for Britain’s economy, through increased exports and higher demand from households.
Britain’s composite leading indicators score has consistently improved for the past 6 months and recently risen to 99.8 in February.
OECD also said that the economy of 30 developed countries are predicted to enjoy “stable growth momentum”. This includes US, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and Germany.
The current weak pound is also expected to boost exports, which will improve Britain’s economy.
This prediction is also being shared by analysts from American Express, Citi and JP Morgan.
英国の経済が見せる回復と、各方面からの肯定的な見通しとは
輸出の増加と各家庭からの強い需要が、英国の将来を押し進める重要な要因として浮上しています。そんな中で、OECDのアナリストは、事業受注、企業の自信、株式市場の動きなどを見て、今後6〜9カ月間に経済の動きを予測しようとしています。2月の英国のOECD景気先行指数 （CLI）は99.8に上昇したと、OECDが発表し、1月の99.6から7ヶ月連続の改善となりました。
このスコアはBrexit（英国離脱）投票の時期、2016年前半を通して低下したものの、8月以降の改善は、経済の改善を示しているでしょう。 OECDの読みは、長期平均における100という数値までには戻っていませんが、これに近いところにまで接近していることが、見て取れます。
ポンドが弱い限り、これが英国の輸出を支えることで、経済をさらに押し上げる助けとなるはずです。アメリカン・エキスプレスの調査によると、海外からの需要の高まりに伴い、英国企業はますます高い業績を見せています。
また、シティとJPモルガンのアナリストらは、GDPがそれぞれ、期待を上方修正し、それぞれ1.8％と1.9％の上昇を予測するかたちとなりました。 EY Item Clubのエコノミストは、今週の英国の2017年の成長予測を、弱いポンドと世界経済の強化を組み合わせ輸出が増加するとの見通しから、引き上げています。さらにOECDも、「米国、カナダ、ドイツでは成長が勢いを増すだろう」と述べていることも注目に値します。
各方面から英国の成長回復が予想される中で、流転を続ける経済の中で、これが、堅牢な成長を続けられるのか注目したいものです。
随着全球经济复苏，英国经济增长势头良好
经济合作与发展组织OECD认为，虽然英国脱欧仍旧带来众多不确定性，但是英国的经济出现了增长势头。
英国的CLI指数受到脱欧公投的影响，在2016年上半年下降。但是如今英国的CLI指数已经上升到了2月份的99.8，显示出英国经济有了起色。
由于英镑的贬值，对于英国的出口业是利好，进而刺激英国经济的增长。
因此，有经济学家提高了2017年英国经济的增长预测，因为英镑贬值外加全球经济复苏会增加英国的出口。
美国运通的一项调查显示，英国公司对海外需求的增长越来越乐观。
而花旗银行及摩根大通的分析师则分别预测，英国的国内生产总值将上升1.8个百分点和1.9个百分点，持平甚至超越去年。
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